India’s telecom sector is once again witnessing a fresh wave of competition — this time, not in total subscribers, but in ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) growth. According to JM Financial’s estimates, Reliance Jio is expected to outpace Bharti Airtel in ARPU growth during Q1 FY26, which covers the April to June 2025 quarter.
While Airtel will still have a higher ARPU overall, the pace at which Jio is catching up could make all the difference going forward.
Highlights
- Jio’s ARPU expected to grow 1.8% QoQ to ₹210
- Airtel’s ARPU likely to rise 1.6% QoQ, reaching ₹249
- Jio benefiting from tariff updates and rise in FWA subscribers
- Airtel’s ARPU growth appears to be reaching saturation
- Vodafone Idea also expected to post 1.6% ARPU growth, but faces challenges
What’s Driving Jio’s ARPU Growth?
Jio’s ARPU, while still trailing Airtel’s in absolute numbers, is expected to rise faster in Q1 FY26. JM Financial projects Jio’s ARPU will increase by 1.8% quarter-on-quarter to ₹210. This improvement is attributed to a few key factors:
- Many of Jio’s users were on long-term annual plans and had not yet been billed under the newly increased tariffs. As these users now begin recharging under the revised prices, the telco is seeing a gradual but strong uplift in average revenue per user.
- Jio has been aggressively pushing its Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) services like Jio AirFiber. The increase in these high-ARPU FWA subscribers is further boosting overall revenues per user.
- The effect of previous tariff hikes is still trickling in for Jio, as a large portion of its base transitions from old to new pricing.
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Airtel: Strong But Steady
In contrast, Airtel’s ARPU is forecasted to grow by 1.6% QoQ, reaching ₹249 in the June quarter. While Airtel continues to lead in terms of premium users and revenue per user, it appears to have reached a saturation point in gains from tariff hikes.
Since most of Airtel’s user base has already moved to new tariffs in previous quarters, there’s little room left for major ARPU leaps — unless another round of tariff revisions takes place.
What About Vodafone Idea?
Vodafone Idea (Vi) is also expected to post a similar 1.6% QoQ ARPU growth. The telco is focused on upgrading its network and moving users from 2G to 4G and 5G. However, the challenges remain significant:
- A large portion of Vi’s user base still uses 2G services, pulling down overall ARPU.
- Network coverage and quality still lag behind competitors in many circles.
That said, Vi has reportedly accelerated its infrastructure upgrades in recent months and has an ambitious plan for further modernization over the next two years. If executed well, this could boost ARPU figures significantly in the long run.
Final Thoughts
While Airtel continues to dominate in ARPU, Jio’s strong growth momentum signals a shift. With an ever-expanding subscriber base, a push into FWA, and fresh revenue from revised tariffs, Jio could close the ARPU gap with Airtel sooner than expected.
As India’s telecom industry braces for the next tariff hike wave and further 5G expansion, it’ll be interesting to see how ARPU numbers evolve in the coming quarters. For now, all eyes are on Q1 FY26 results.